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What Does the Big Game Have to Do with the Stock Market?

Casey and Jarrod join forces with, Financial Planner and Analyst, Will Taylor to discuss the 2021 Big NFL Game. Did you know that the outcome of the game affects the stock market? Don't believe us? Listen now.

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EPISODE TRANSCRIPTION

Announcer:
Hello, everyone. Welcome to the Millionaire Dentist Podcast, brought to you by Four Quadrants Advisory. On this podcast, we break down the world of dentistry finances, and business practices to help you become the millionaire dentist you deserve to be. Please be advised we do speak with an honest tongue and may not be safe for work.

Casey Hiers:
Hello and welcome. This is Casey Hiers, back at it again today at the Millionaire Dentist Podcast. We have a special episode today, all about the big game in Tampa Bay this past weekend.

Casey Hiers:
We have in studio, Will Taylor joining us as well as our cohost Jarrod Bridgeman. Guys, thanks for joining.

Will Taylor:
Good to be back.

Jarrod Bridgeman:
Hey, how you doing?

Casey Hiers:
Doing great. Doing great. Small stakes wagering... Lost all of my small wagers over the weekend, but what'd you guys think of the big game, the Chiefs versus the Bucks?

Will Taylor:
Well from people that live in the city of Indianapolis, Indiana, I feel like it was pretty disappointing to see Tom Brady get his seventh big game ring, that we will be referring to as the big game, the rest of this podcast for copyright reasons, or we can refer to it as many other things. But yeah, pretty disappointing on my end, but what are you going to do?

Casey Hiers:
Yeah, there is some resentment in our area because Tom Brady has hurt the Colts so many times.

Jarrod Bridgeman:
Yeah, we're not big fans of him here, but I did say I may have won a little bit of money on it.

Casey Hiers:
Oh, there you go.

Casey Hiers:
Now to our listeners, the reason we're having this podcast today, it's a little bit tongue-in-cheek, but there's evidence, there're articles in the finance world that there's a correlation between who wins the big game and stock market performance. More specifically, Will, AFC versus NFC.

Casey Hiers:
So we just want to talk about this a little bit because we read this and found it... At first, I thought it was a joke, but there's some validity to it. So tell our listeners those statistics.

Will Taylor:
Yeah. So looking at solely the numbers, only the numbers, it does typically show over the past now 55 big games that we have had that when the NFC or the National Football Conference between not the American Football Conference or AFC for those non-big football fans out there, when the NFC wins the Super Bowl, then typically there has been a correlation to a more positive stock market return in wake of that big game victory.

Casey Hiers:
More specifically what research shows is that the S&P 500 has performed better and posted positive gains with greater frequency over the past 54 years of the big game when the NFC has won. Right?

Casey Hiers:
So naturally, the stock market has done quite well these past two seasons, to which the AFC team has won, but research shows historically from what, 1967 to 2020, that the S&P has gained how many points?

Will Taylor:
A little over 10. A little over 10 points on average, when the NFC wins the big game. When the AFC has won, that has been only about 7.1% during that time. Even getting a little bit more into the nitty gritty numbers. A NFC winning team has produced a positive year, 79% of the time. When a AFC winning team, only 65% of the time. So splitting hairs there is a little bit, but it does seem that there are some numbers to back up the hype that you see in regards to this trend.

Jarrod Bridgeman:
In terms of football, is there a difference between areas and fandom for NFC versus AFC? Is there one side that the country tends to be more rallying around?

Casey Hiers:
Are you looking for a geographical correlation?

Jarrod Bridgeman:
Sure.

Will Taylor:
Unlike the NBA, which is way easier for me to try to figure out between the two sides, the Eastern and Western Conference. Unfortunately, the NFL does not use those same metrics. So the AFC and the NFC teams are spread all over the place, in my opinion, without a whole lot of rhyme or reason. There are probably some true football purists out there that are screaming into their radios right now, and talking about how I don't know what I'm talking about. But that being said, no, I don't think there's some real betting correlation there.

Will Taylor:
There've been 24 winning teams from the NFC and 21 winning teams from the AFC. So, that is where that data can be derived from.

Casey Hiers:
I would have loved the same article to have included maybe Unsustained Phil, and when he sees a shadow and when he doesn't, because this feels like they're drawing for some straws here with correlation, right?

Casey Hiers:
The market is so up and down, you can probably find commonality, but again, this was a legitimate financial article that touched on this. So by that reasoning, I guess, 2021, the market's going to be up.

Jarrod Bridgeman:
That's good news, right?

Casey Hiers:
Again, this is just a one man's opinion and it sounds more comedic than anything, but there's data to back it up.

Will Taylor:
Hey, Tom Brady says the market's going to be up over 10% this year. And who's to argue with that guy? He's got seven big game rings at this point and I feel like he's probably performed pretty well in the market himself over the years, with the amount of money he's putting in there.

Will Taylor:
It's fun to talk about. Just something we have a lot of serious podcasts on here, and it's kind of fun to jump into a topic that's a little more fun loving and something that relates to everybody.

Will Taylor:
I feel like most people have some plan of watching, paying attention to, or at least being aware of the big game, the biggest Sunday of the year, for some. Others might say it's the Sunday of the Masters, but I'm not going to split hairs with those people either.

Casey Hiers:
I'll tell you what. The part of the game that I enjoyed the most was actually the flyover. We're with friends and eating amazing food and having a great time. But I noticed it was a little different.

Casey Hiers:
When I did a little research, apparently three different Air Force Bombers conducted a first of its kind trifecta flyover during the National Anthem. So you had a B1 bomber out of South Dakota. You had the B2 bomber Spirit from Missouri and the B52 from North Dakota.

Casey Hiers:
So having those three flyover out of the corner of my eye, that was as interesting to me is a lot of the plays in the ball game. But anyway, did you guys see that fly over?

Will Taylor:
I actually missed the beginning of the game. I was catching the end of the PGA Tour event. So missed the start of the big game, but you know, I'll have to go back and do a little bit of background research on that. I typically do see the flyover at the beginning. So I'll have to check that out.

Casey Hiers:
And we'd alluded to it, but again, we don't take this as sound financial advice. We find this interesting. There's always a lot of data to consider, obviously with the addition of Robin Hood and some of these apps that you can do with the blink of an eye, grabbing one or two pieces of data to make big-time financial decisions is not good. I think that's why we're almost tongue-in-cheeking this podcast a little bit, because while data is important, one or two data points typically don't make sound decisions. You need many, many data points. Would you agree, Will?

Will Taylor:
I would. I would totally agree with that, obviously. We're not going to base any sort of future financial decisions solely and only based off of the big game victor, but it is interesting to see the trends over the years.

Will Taylor:
Now, if we're talking about rates of return here, I cannot confirm nor deny from personal experience, but it sounds like the streaker received quite the rate of return over the weekend as internet and Reddit rumors are showing that he placed a $50,000 wager at 7.5 to one odds that there would be a streaker.

Casey Hiers:
So wait, there was a prop bet on if there's a streaker or not.

Will Taylor:
That is correct.

Casey Hiers:
And the rumor is that there was a streaker and this person did what?

Will Taylor:
That $50,000 at 7.5 to one odds that there would be a streaker. And I don't know if there's anybody out with a calculator that means $375,000 prop bet victory goes to the gentlemen in the pink thong, Borat outfit running onto the middle of the field. Rumors has it, it was only a thousand dollars to pay his bail. So that's a pretty good wager if there are not any long-term effects as a result.

Jarrod Bridgeman:
And speaking of Reddit though, I don't know if anybody else noticed, but Reddit itself did run a five second commercial during the big game.

Will Taylor:
How much did that cost them?

Jarrod Bridgeman:
I, that was not disclosed from what I could tell, but they came out with a statement saying it's very expensive to do this, but we are the underdogs and it was a very long paragraph. Basically to read the whole thing you had to find like a screenshot online or find that elsewhere. But I thought it was kind of cool. It was like going off last week's topic of the whole GameStop thing and everything else. These guys came in and dumped a bunch of money and were able to buy five seconds. And it came on almost like the old Max Headroom stuff, or it came in and glitched in like a taken over the airwaves and then it glitched back out.

Casey Hiers:
That's I didn't see, that's pretty funny.

Jarrod Bridgeman:
It was very cool. I thought

Will Taylor:
Hey, trying to beat the man still. I respect it.

Casey Hiers:
Yeah. The first time Anheuser-Busch didn't have a commercial I believe in, in decades.

Jarrod Bridgeman:
Yes. Yeah. I remember that too. It's been a long time.

Will Taylor:
I don't believe I saw Coca-Cola commercial either. Am I crazy?

Jarrod Bridgeman:
The other thing I wanted to mention about the whole advertising thing is you mentioned Budweiser didn't really show up this year. Usually in the big game there's a lot of ads for upcoming summer blockbusters and upcoming movies. And I'm a big fan film. And I noticed that there wasn't as much stuff this year. I don't know.

Casey Hiers:
Are you a big fan film or fan film fan?

Jarrod Bridgeman:
I'm a film fan. I'm a fan of films. I like films. I like fans as well. I like to fan myself.

Jarrod Bridgeman:
But usually every year there's a lot of commercials for the upcoming summer blockbusters, award shows and things like that. And this year it was pretty lackluster. I don't know if it's because theaters are not really open yet.

Will Taylor:
There's definitely that, another thing that I noticed in some passing about the big game commercials was that there was a claim that they were sold out per usual, but there certainly seemed to be a lot of CBS commercials during the big game this year. So typically those are set for advertising yourself when slots don't fill. So I find that a little bit of a contradiction, very interesting

Jarrod Bridgeman:
That their new paramount plus streaming service.

Will Taylor:
That's correct. I will say wrapping back around our main theme here, the NFC did win the big game on Sunday night and the Dow Jones was up 240 points on the Monday following. So was that a minor blip in the radar? Was that coincidence or is that a sign of things to come? Who could say, but it did hold true to form day one following the big game.

Casey Hiers:
Will I appreciate you bringing this information to Jarrod and I it's been fun talking about it. As always don't take one or two pieces of data and run with it when you're talking about your finances, but it is interesting. There's a lot of different areas you can look to, to potentially see if there's a correlation for performance in the market, but I appreciate you guys fun topic.

Jarrod Bridgeman:
All right. Thanks, Casey.

Will Taylor:
Thanks for having me.

Announcer:
That's all the time we have today. Thank you to our guests for their insight and for sharing some really great information. And thank you to you. The listener for tuning in the Millionaire Dentist Podcast is brought to you by Four Quadrants Advisory to see if they might be a good fit for you and your practice go over to fourquadrantsadvisory.com and see why year after year, they retain over 95% of their clients. Thank you again for joining us and we'll see you next time.